Thomas Wictor

In June of this year, Saudi Arabia announced a seven-point plan for the Middle East. It’s incredibly risky and ambitious. The Saudis must always be taken seriously, so I knew that they’d thought this out. I couldn’t determine how in the world the Arab League would keep the region from going up in flames the way Libya did after NATO overthrew Muammar Gadaffi in 2011. Well, now it’s all clear.

On October 11, 2015, the Syrian Democratic Forces (QSD) announced their formation. These are Kurds, Muslim Arabs, Turkmens, and Syriac Christians. About two weeks after this EXTREMELY disparate group was created, it launched the most successful series of offensives in the entire five-year Syrian civil war. The US immediately began arming the QSD, and the Turks suddenly stopped complaining that the Kurds in this new army were up to no good.

Less than two weeks ago, the QSD created a political wing, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC). And despite existing for only days, the SDC is being taken very seriously.

The SDC’s formation coincided with a landmark meeting of representatives from Syria’s armed and political opposition in Saudi Arabia. The Riyadh conference saw anti-regime factions agree to negotiate with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad while insisting he must step down at the start of a transition period.

They created a 33-member “supreme committee” to select members of a future negotiating team. But the meeting in Riyadh excluded both the [Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its milita the YPG], whose relations with most Arab rebel groups have been tense…

But according to a political figure close to the talks in New York, Russia and the United States are considering the SDC’s inclusion in an opposition team.

“The Americans found in the Riyadh conference a step forward, but it wasn’t enough,” the source said.

Moscow and Washington will discuss “a united delegation with members of the Riyadh conference and the SDC” in New York, he added.

Samir Nashar, a member of the opposition National Coalition, told AFP of “unconfirmed pieces of information” that a Russian-American agreement would see PYD head Saleh Muslim and SDC co-chair Haytham Manna join the opposition team.

“The SDC is a new voice that cannot be overlooked,” Manna told AFP by telephone from France. “We are ready to discuss with the Riyadh body, as a part of the opposition, either to create a joint delegation or to find a path forward,” he said.

“The SDC is not an alternative for any of these, but is the nucleus of a democratic, secular front that aspires for a state of law.”

Since the QSD is the most effective of the Syrian rebel groups, it’s going to have a very profound influence on the future of Syria. The reason that the QSD is so effective is that the Arab League has embedded thousands of special forces in it. There’s no question whatsoever. It’s simply not possible that the fifteen or so militias that form the QSD could come together and begin routing the Islamic State in two weeks. These brave and skilled militia are spearheaded by professional soldiers—heavily armed Arab special operators using new weapons.

Here’s another video of the long-range American BGM-71 TOW missile with a thermobaric warhead. This missile does not exist.

The video uploader thinks that the Hezbollah terrorists in the pickup survived, but this weapon kills with overpressure. It uses the shock wave of the exploding vaporized fuel.

It’s clear from the way the pickup slowly rolls forward that there was a dead man at the wheel. Since the BGM-71 missile flies at 761 miles per hour (1225 kilometers per hour), we know that the gunner was 4.8 miles (7.8 kilometers) away. The absolute maximum range of every known BGM-71 TOW missile variant is 2.8 miles (4.5 kilometers).

Somebody is using an extended-range BGM-71 with a new warhead. It has a proximity fuse to explode the warhead when it gets close to its target. I’m guessing that it’s the British Thorn-EMI proximity fuse, which is used in the BGM-71F (TOW 2B), a “top down” missile that fires two explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) into the tank below it.

See the incredible power of the TOW 2B warhead? The new thermobaric warhead, on the other hand, is an antipersonnel weapon, so the explosive force is much less, and there’s no fragmentation. It was invented to kill one or two people from far away, without causing a lot of collateral damage.

The Arab League is calling the shots

I’ve posted about various new weapons being debuted in Syria, such as the TOW with the theomobaric warhead, the hypersonic air-to-surface missile, and the Air Tractor AT-802i counterinsurgency (COIN) turboprop.

Now, I’ve finally found a photo of special forces attached to the QSD. This Indonesian article talks about how the US is giving ammunition to the organization.

The caption says “American soldiers in Syria.”

It’s a screen grab from a Voice of America video that I can’t find anywhere, but those are not Americans. Playing with the contrast reveals a few things.

They’re not wearing helmets, they’re armed with American M-4 carbines, and they’re carrying British Bergen-style backpacks.

French special forces use Bergen-style backpacks (left).

But I don’t think the special operators in that screen grab are French. One nation had its entire tourist industry destroyed by two Islamic State attacks.

Tunisia.

The Tunisian special forces are modeled on the French. Notice how the trousers of the Tunisian Groupement Commando de la Garde Nationale above exactly match those in the photo below.

Do you think the Tunisians might want a crack at the Islamic State, with no rules of engagement?

There’s really no way of knowing who these men are, but they’re not American, and they’re almost certainly not European. The giant Bergen packs indicate that they’re infiltrating on foot. Others are dropped by parachute, brought by helicopter, or carried by armored vehicles. Their mission is to kill Iranians, Hezbollah, Islamic State terrorists, and al-Nusra Front terrorists. Each of those groups have allies who also have to be killed.

Everything so far has involved a relatively small number of highly trained Arab special operators using new tactical weapons.

The new Israeli and Arab strategic weapons haven’t come into play yet.

A senior official in the technical division of the IAF explained that the force’s abilities have grown to the point that it currently is able to rapidly unleash 3,000 missiles weighing one ton each - “very smart missiles” according to his definition.

He explained that within four days of fighting, a barrage of that sort would be enough to topple a state.

Israel and the Arab League have learned from American mistakes. Creating a better world requires that a lot people be sent to their great reward first, and then those who rebuild have to be supported by ruthless killers. The only way to prove that you’re a ruthless killer is to ruthlessly kill, with lots of witnesses.

These are terrorists in Syria. They got what they deserved.

They were firing some kind of crew-served weapon at civilians, which I can tell because they didn’t conceal themselves. You can see puffs of smoke (red arrow) and hear detonations.

Another long-range, thermobaric TOW missile that doesn’t exist.

The survivors just cover the dead with blankets instead of running away.

That’s because the idiots think their buddies’ weapon exploded. They don’t realize that Arab special forces just hit them with a new type of missile.

The video is propaganda. It shows screeching amateurs firing a BGM-71E, but the terrorists were killed by quiet professionals using the thermobaric TOW. This is how the Arab League and Israel will keep the peace between all these different groups in Syria. Every rebel organization will get to claim partial credit for the victory, so they’ll all have accomplishments to put on the table.

Standing behind them as they work out their differences will be the people who actually won the war. Everybody negotiating will know the capabilities of Israel and the Arab League, having seen them firsthand.

That will inspire clearheaded thinking.