Thomas Wictor

I always loved the phrase “paper tiger.” The communist Chinese invented it to describe the US. My mother was a great fan of folded paper doodads. This is the sort of thing she did.

In July of this year, I became convinced that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the Iranian nuclear deal—was an international deception operation intended to give the Arab League and Israel a casus belli for overthrowing the mullahs. Well, I was right. The war is on, and the Israelis have announced that Iran is a paper tiger. The Persian adventure in Syria has failed.

Israel: Iran has withdrawn most of its Revolutionary Guards from Syria

Dozens of Iranian fighters said killed; Hezbollah, which has lost up to 1,500 men, reportedly fears anti-Assad rebels could now prevail

Iran has withdrawn most of the Revolutionary Guards fighters it deployed to Syria three months ago, Israeli security officials told The Times of Israel. The decision to withdraw the forces was likely made due to the rising number of casualties among Iranian soldiers fighting in Syria and the subsequent growing public outcry back home.

The officials confirmed the withdrawal to The Times of Israel days after a report in Bloomberg quoted American sources saying such a withdrawal was in its early stages, and after Iran issued a denial. The Israeli sources stressed, however, that most of the troops have actually now been withdrawn.

Israelis are cagey, which is smart. The withdrawal of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is only part of the story. What happened is that Iran completely took over the fight in Syria.

The war in Syria is now essentially an Iranian regime war – not a proxy one but in the most direct sense of the word. The Syrian rebels are mainly fighting the Iranian regime, represented by Sepah Pasdaran [the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] and Basij and their foot soldiers, Hezbollah Lebanon and the Iraqi militias.

Syria (or the areas under regime control) is effectively a country occupied by Sepah Pasdaran. Bashar al-Assad is a just puppet who is no longer in charge, and his regime is just a facade. His real masters are the head of Sepah Pasdaran’s operations in Syria Hossein Hamedani and the head of Sepah Qods [Quds Force] Qassim Soleimani.

Both are the de facto military rulers of Syria. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei has the final say in all important matters in Syria, just like in Iran.

Our readers may remember what Gen. Qassem Soleimani promised in his (mock) Syria election programme in June 2014:

“I will dismantle the Syrian army and replace it with a much better organised and fully loyal force, the Syrian Sepah Pasdaran. The Syrian army cannot be trusted with major battles, as we’ve seen since the start of the troubles in Syria in March 2011.

“We have already established in Syria the ‘National Defence Forces’, modeled on the Iranian Basij, and they have done a great job. A Syrian Sepah Pasdaran will be a culmination of these efforts to guarantee security for all Syrians.

“Like in Iran, Syria’s Sepah Pasdaran will have the final say. Power should be in the hands of strong military generals who know how to rule, not weak civilian presidents and ministers.”

So: To fight the war in Syria the Iranians first sent the Quds Force, which had traditionally been solely responsible for extra-territorial military activity. Then Hezbollah was sent, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was sent, and the paramilitary Basij was sent. A Syrian Basij called the National Defense Forces was created, as was Liwa Fatemiyoun—a brigade of Shi’ite Afghans. Iraqi Shi’ite militias were imported, Druze militias were organized, and the final stage was the formation of a Syrian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Though the Iranian military is a paper tiger, the term is relative. Iranians and their lackeys did all right when fighting lightly armed and disorganized rebels. What happened was that as a first step to the real war, Israel killed every single top Iranian and Hezbollah commander, as admitted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

[W]e will not allow Iran to set up a second front in the Golan. And we will act forcefully, and have acted forcefully, to prevent that. We will not allow the use of Syrian territory, from which we would be attacked by the Syrian army or anyone else, and we have acted forcefully against that. And third, we will not allow the use of Syrian territory for the transfer of game changing weapons into Lebanon into Hezbollah’s hands, and we have acted forcefully on that.

The list of dead commanders is amazing.

1. Brigadier General Hossein Hamedani – Quds Force architect of Iranian operations in Syria
2. Brigadier General Farshid Hasounizadeh – Quds Force
3. Brigadier General Hamid Mukhtarband – Quds Force
4. General Mohammad Ali Allah-Dadi – Quds Force liaison to Hezbollah and Syrian intelligence
5. Hassan Hussein al-Hajj – chief of Hezbollah military operations
6. Mahdi Hassan Obeid – senior Hezbollah commander
7. Alaa Kasad Mahudar al-Musawi – commander of Harakat al-Nujaba in Aleppo
8. Imad Mughniyeh Mohammed Issa – chief of Hezbollah operations in Syria and Iraq
9. Jihad Mughniyeh – commander of Hezbollah in Golan Heights and son of Imad Mughniyeh
10. Abu Ali al-Tabatabai – commander of Quds Force in the Golan Heights
11. Ismail al-Ashab – Hezbollah liaison with Iran
12. General Jabar Drisawi – commander of Iranian Basij in Syria
13. Brigadier General Mohammad Jamali Paghalleh – Quds Force
14. General Abdollah Eskandari – Quds Force
15. General Hassan Shateri – Quds Force liaison to Lebanon
16. Ismail Ali Heydari – Quds Force commander
17. Musa Ali Shahimi – senior Hezbollah commander
18. Ali Hussein Nassif – chief of Hezbollah operations in Syria
19. General ——– Assadi – commander of Quds Force expeditionary units in Lebanon
20. Ali Shabeeb – senior Hezbollah commander
21. Fadi al-Jazar – senior Hezbollah commander
22. Abbas Hussein Ridha – commander of Abu Fadl al-Abbas Brigade in Syria
23. Khader Nasrallah – senior Hezbollah commander and brother of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
24. Ahmed Heyyari – commander of Quds Force Imam Hussein Battalion
25. General Hajj Nader Hamid – Quds Force
26. Brigadier General Reza Khavari – Quds Force
27. General Sajad Tahernia – Quds Force
28. Colonel Mostafa Ezzatollah Soleimani – commander of IRGC special forces battalion of Hazrat Bani Hashem (AS) Brigade 44
29. Mohammed Hussein Khani – Quds Force commander
30. Ismail Siratnia – Quds Force commander
31. Major Musa Jamshidian – IRGC 8th Armored Brigade
32. Mohammed Azizabadi – Quds Force commander
33. Reza Khaveri – commander and co-founder of Liwa Fatemiyoun, Afghan Shia militia
34. Ali-Reza Tavasolli – commander of Liwa Fatemiyoun
35. Mostafa Sadrzadeh – commander of Ammadr brigade and Fatemiyoun
36. Hossein Badpa – IRGC commander
37. Abdul Rashid Rashwand – senior IRGC commander
38. General Hossein Faradi – IRGC commander of Liwa Fatemiyoun
39. Samir Kuntar – Hezbollah commander of Druze militia Syrian Resistance in the Golan
40. Farhan al-Sha’alan- commander of Syrian Resistance in the Golan
41. Qassem Suleimani - head of the Quds Force
42. Haj Abu Saja - IRGC commander of Southern Syria
43. The “German Haj” - IRGC commander, leader of IRGC And Hezbollah training center in Damascus
44. The “Spanish Haj” - IRGC commander

This is called “preparing the battlefield.”

Paper tiger burned to ashes

On September 30, 2015, the Russians began air strikes in support of the Iranians, who launched a series of offensives on October 7, 2015.

They were slaughtered.

The Israelis say that 1500 of 5000 Hezbollah operatives have been killed. Then on October 11, 2015, the Syrian Democratic Forces announced their formation. Within two weeks they began incredibly successful offensives against the Islamic State in northeast Syria, showing spectacular and extremely specialized military skills.

Clearly Israel and the Arab League have coordinated. The Israelis killed the Iranian and Hezbollah commanders, and the Arabs infiltrated thousands of special forces into Syria to fight everybody who needs killing. Videos coming out of Syria show that new weapons are being utilized.

Supersonic missiles that are not permitted to be filmed.

American BGM-71 TOW missiles with thermobaric warheads.

The Air Tractor AT-802i counter-insurgency (COIN) turboprop.

How is the Arab League protecting itself while its special operators are in Syria? Well, the US is holding the fort. This is how many American personnel are currently in the Middle East.

Kuwait - 15,000
United Arab Emirates - 5000
Bahrain - 7000
Jordan - 1500
Qatar - 10,000
Djibouti - 4500
Turkey - 5000+
Sinai Peninsula - 700
Israel - unknown number of command posts
Saudi Arabia - enough troops at Eskan Village to be visited by professional wrestling group The Shield

We’re minding the store while Arab and probably African, Central Asian, and Asian special forces massacre the enemies of civilization in Syria.

The videos put out by the Syrian Democratic Forces (QSD) show very brave men and women risking their lives.

There’s no question that they’re terrific militias, but being militias, they’ve been unable to defeat the Syrian Arab Army, Hezbollah, the Quds Force, the IRGC, the Basij, the Islamic State, the al-Nusra Front, and all the others who have to be killed. So the QSD is being helped by invisible special forces. Here’s more evidence.

An Islamic State truck bomb heads toward the QSD.

It’s hit with an aerial munition.

Either a helicopter gunship fired a missile, or an Emirati Air Tractor AT-802i COIN turboprop of Aviation Group 18 dropped a precision-guided bomb. My guess is the latter. The Emiratis are known for being incredibly skilled pilots; the AT-802i is a converted crop duster fitted with armor plate and a second seat for the weapon systems officer (WSO).

For a multitude of military and geopolitical reasons, the Arab League and their allies are fighting this war in secret. Allowing the multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian, polyglot QSD to take credit for these victories will make it easier for the region to put aside ancient enmities and rebuild.

Two more pieces of good news. One: The Turks have begun to pull their illegally inserted troops out of Mosul, Iraq. President Obama is being lauded for ending this crisis by appealing for calm from all sides. Do you think President Obama’s appeal for calm would’ve convinced this guy to back down?

I believe that someone else had a word with Erdogan.

The second bit of good news.

Israeli officials said late on Thursday that a deal with Turkey was struck to normalize ties following high-level bilateral talks in Switzerland.

Turkish officials said a final agreement was yet to be sealed, but that given the progress it would not be too long.

Believe me, our president had nothing to do with that. You know what Erdogan respects?

To get the Turks out of Iraq and bury the hatchet with Israel, guys wearing kippahs and keffiyehs showed Erdogan videos that looked like they were taken at the Knob Creek Gun Range, but they actually showed what’s being done to all the troublemakers in Syria.

“I can see your point,” said Erdogan.

We’re starting to achieve a meeting of the minds. Isn’t it nice?