Thomas Wictor

Last night I wrote a post about the war of words between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds. My opinion is that it’s posturing as a way of saving face, a way of projecting strength, and as geopolitical deception. Today I discovered that I was right. My knowledge of weapons and military capabilities allowed me to see through the fog of verbiage that all sides are generating.

Before I explain how my theories have been confirmed, let me say that I’m not special. Everyone who reads this can do what I do. Here’s how I developed the ability to decipher the world.

1. I began learning about weapons when I was about seven.

2. To fully understand weapons, I had to learn how they’re used (tactics).

3. I discovered that every nation puts tactics together differently (strategies).

4. Learning about each nation’s strategies taught me about their culture.

5. When I understood a nation’s culture, I could determine what the soldiers would and would not do.

6. Understanding a nation’s soldiers allows me to predict what a nation will do.

Weapons are technology

There’s an old saying that all weapons that you see publicly are ten years behind an armed force’s actual capabilities.

Like weapons, public statements by military officials are always months or years behind what’s already happened. If a military leader says, “We’re thinking about doing ______,” you can bet that this operation is well underway.

The more sophisticated the military leaders, the wider the gap between the actual commencement of the operation and the public statement that such an operation might take place.

It’s now clear to me that best military planners on earth are Israeli and Arab. Nobody can compare. They use strategies as a new form of technology. Not a single armed force in world history has fought wars this way. Westerners need to get down on their knees and thank the higher power of their choice that Israel and the Arab League are not our enemies.

I’ve theorized that thousands of Arab special operators have been fighting in Syria, and I also knew that the Yemen war was not a quagmire. The Saudi-led Coalition was winning decisively in Yemen.

Today the Saudis confirmed that I was right on both counts.

We don’t know the weapons they have

A very small number of highly trained fighters armed with the most advanced weapons on earth can change the course of a major conflict. The key is their ability to cause massive but precise destruction. Accordingly, the Israeli-Arab alliance has organized strategic special forces. These units function in the way of, say, a US Navy carrier strike group.

In 2011, Israel created a special-forces command for this new role.

The Israel Defense Forces is establishing a new “Depth Corps Force” to coordinate and execute multidisciplinary missions far from Israel’s borders, Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz announced on Thursday.

“The primary task of the Corps will be to extend joint IDF operations into the strategic depth,” the army said in a statement.

Defense News reported that the establishment of the unified Special Forces command was “one of several organizational and conceptual upgrades under review in response to escalating threats and instability anticipated in a rapidly changing region.”

There’s absolutely no doubt that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt have this capability as well. I can’t say if additional Arab League nations have strategic special forces. It’s very likely.

Knowing weapons allows for educated guesses

I thought that Arab League special operators began fighting in Syria in the spring of 2015, but now I believe that at the very latest, these strategic forces arrived in late 2014. There’s no way I can be certain.

They have new weapons. I can’t identify this autocannon (red arrow) being transported to Manbij.

The video below seems to show that they have guided rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs).

They fired missiles at Tishreen Dam that blew out every single window and caused ceilings to collapse—killing terrorists with shock waves—but the structure itself wasn’t damaged.

The red arrows in the above screen grab show fruit on plates. It was lunchtime. This means that the attackers achieved total surprise, despite there being no cover anywhere near the dam.

Everything I’ve read about Arab League strategic special forces says that they depend on speed and firepower. In warfare, there’s something called “weight of fire.” If you have 100 soldiers armed with rifles, they have nowhere near the weight of fire produced by 100 soldiers armed with machine guns.

American troops speak of the “Iraqi death bloom”: Whenever anything happened, Iraqis would close their eyes and unleash fully automatic fire in all directions. Well, imagine that under control.

The Arab League strategic special forces produce disciplined death blooms. Each operator has been trained and trained and trained to put bullets into the largest number of targets possible, as accurately and quickly as he can.

Weapons in Saudi hands

I thought the Saudis had everything under control, and they’ve confirmed it.

Saudi Arabia has offered for the first time to send ground troops to Syria to fight Islamic State, its defence ministry said on Thursday.

“The kingdom is ready to participate in any ground operations that the coalition (against Isis) may agree to carry out in Syria,” said military spokesman Brigadier General Ahmed al-Asiri during an interview with al-Arabiya TV news.

Saudi sources told the Guardian that thousands of special forces could be deployed, probably in coordination with Turkey. Saudi Arabia and Turkey set up a military coordination body a few weeks ago.

Asiri suggested that recent progress against Houthi rebels in the war in Yemen was allowing Saudi Arabia to free up forces for deployment in Syria.

The Saudis are already in Syria. They’ve been there for well over a year.

And if they’re coordinating with Turkey, that means that the Kurds are on board, since the Saudis are de facto Kurdish allies. Everything being said publicly—suggestions, threats, disagreements, promises—is theater. All the parties got together a long time ago to work out the plan of action that’s being implemented.

What’s happening now is that everyone is confident enough in the outcome that they’re willing to go on record.

A defense official says a new intelligence assessment of ISIS in Iraq and Syria has lowered the estimated number of fighters, reports CBS News’ national security correspondent David Martin.

The amount of fighters is now estimated to be around 19,000 to 25,000, down from previous estimates which usually ranged from 20,000 to 30,000 fighters and as high as 33,000.

The drop is attributed to battlefield deaths, trouble recruiting, desertions and increased difficulty getting into Syria, Martin reports.

Not only are people confident in the outcome, they’re confident in each other. The Arab League strategic special forces have built a rapport with those whose cooperation they needed.

But there’s something else.

I won’t link to the video. It shows the corpse of an Islamic State terrorist in Jarablus, Syria. He was on a motorcycle when he was hit by a munition that instantly stripped his body of flesh between the collarbones and the knees. A directed, horizontal shock wave from a missile with a fuel-air warhead made 75 percent of him into a skeleton. His face and arms were burned black; the heat and shock wave were as concentrated as a jet of sulfuric acid.

People who have weapons like that should be your friends.