Thomas Wictor

The advance comes after days of fierce clashes that saw YPG forces advance east from the Kurdish stronghold of Afrin and take over a series of villages before reaching Minnigh.

In the map below, Afrin is the red arrow, the Minaq-Menagh-Minnigh Air Base is the green arrow, and the Euphrates River is the purple arrow.

Here’s what Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said after confirming that Turkey had fired artillery at Minaq Air Base and other targets.

We will retaliate against every step. The YPG will immediately withdraw from Azaz and the surrounding area and will not go close to it again.

Everything I’ve read says that the YPG took Minaq Air Base on February 11, 2016, and then threatened to attack Azaz. The Russians were said to have carried out air strikes in support of the YPG Minaq operation.

Four things.

One, the piece below was published on November 29, 2015.

Russia supports the Syrian affiliate of the PKK terrorist organization, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which is trying to take control of the Azaz region in Syria near the Turkish border.

While the YPG attacks opposition forces in Azaz, Russian aircraft have staged three airstrikes against the road linking the district with the Bab al Salameh border gate. The YPG said it is preparing for an offensive on the western Euphrates, which Turkey described as its “red line.”

More than two months ago, the YPG was already assaulting Azaz with Russian help, yet Turkey took no action. Why not?

Second point.

The Kurds say that they didn’t take Minaq Air Base.

A Kurdish official confirmed the shelling of the Menagh base, which he said had been captured by the Kurdish-allied Jaysh al-Thuwar group rather than the YPG. Both are part of the Syria Democratic Forces alliance.

Jaysh al-Thuwar are Arabs who were trained by Arab League and African special operators.

I believe that in reality Jaysh al-Thuwar is a front for Arab League, Asian, Central Asian, and African special forces. The men never used to wear masks, they had no heavy weapons, and no state supported them.

Now they’re masked, and they have armored vehicles and unidentified automatic cannons (red arrow).

Third point.

The YPG wasn’t the only target of the Turkish shelling.

Anatolia news agency reported that the Turkish military hit Syrian government forces on Saturday, adding that the shelling had been in response to fire inflicted on a Turkish military guard post in Turkey’s southern Hatay region.

Turkish artillery targeted Syrian forces again late on Saturday, according to a military source quoted by RIA Novosti. The attack targeted the town of Deir Jamal in the Aleppo Governorate.

Fourth point.

The video below of Minaq Air Base was released on February 11, 2016, the day that the YPG or Jaysh al-Thuwar took the installation.

There’s no evidence whatsoever of fresh air strikes. No smoke, nothing burning, no craters. Yet the information below is being widely reported.

The Syrian Kurds have successfully driven an armed opposition group, the Levant Front, from a former Syrian military airbase in Syria’s north.

According to sources quoted by Reuters they were supported by Russian airstrikes in this endeavour. No fewer than 30 Russian air raids assisted the Kurdish offensive.

Thirty air strikes Russian-style would mean a minimum of 240 bombs. However, we see absolutely no sign that even one bomb hit the base. There were also no corpses. Why not, if the fighting was so fierce? The Kurds say that the jihadists suffered heavy casualties. Where are the dead bodies?

For some unfathomable reason, the jihadists holding the air base were armed with 19th century bolt-action rifles.

Also an antique cavalry sword.

That pretty much proves that no state was supporting them, unless somehow Tsar Nicholas II was doing so with a time machine.

Not dishonest; master of geopolitics

You need to understand that there appeared to be no solution to Syria. Every group and state involved has fanatical elements that will not compromise, and every group and state involved depends for its survival on an image of superior military power. To concede is seen as weakness. It invites attack. Despite the seeming impossibility, a master plan was created.

After claiming that the Arabs of Jaysh al-Thuwar—not the Kurds of the YPG—had taken the Minaq Air Base, the YPG sent out a tweet saying that Turkey had shelled its positions…at Minaq Air Base.

The area pictured above is not at Minaq Air Base.

I searched for hours, but I couldn’t locate it.

The Turks are said to have fired their T-155 Fırtına self-propelled howitzers. This is supposed to be a video of the actual shelling taking place.

Was it sheer luck that the Kurds just happened to be there with cameras, and no Turkish sniper killed them?

The T-155 uses a 155mm round. Here’s how big it is.

For targeting ground troops, the Turks would use a high-explosive fragmentation round, and they would almost certainly set it to explode in an air burst. LANGUAGE WARNING; no gore. Stupid graphics and music.

An air burst won’t leave craters. It sprays the earth with thousands of razor-sharp fragments. If a 155mm round did hit the earth, it wouldn’t make a crater the size of Mount Fuji.

Despite what we’re told was hours of shelling, the YPG and Jaysh al-Thuwar didn’t suffer a single casualty. Nobody was even scratched.

Master of improvement

When the stakes are astronomical, and when a handful of visionaries are trying to improve an entire region, they’re allowed to tell whatever story they want. This post is intended to reassure; that’s all. What’s happening in Syria is theater, but if the show is a box-office failure, thousands will die. Governments will fall. Raving lunatics will go out and start slaughtering everyone in sight.

Trust the master.

You don’t have to like or support him. Just believe that he knows what he’s doing.

A leader like Mohammed bin Salman—Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince—comes along only once in a lifetime, if that. He surrounds himself with people who know more about the military than he does. That’s what makes him a genius, a true master of his craft. The Saudis became de facto allies of Israel, convinced the Turks to accept the creation of an independent Kurdistan, and prevented Iran from taking over Yemen.

Next is the defeat of the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Assad.