Thomas Wictor

I’ve been dying to talk about this, but I generally refrained. Now that Arab social media has picked up the story, I can discuss my theory of how the Arab League is destroying Hezbollah in Syria.

Mythological Hezbollah

The Second Lebanon War (July 12 to August 14, 2023) was touted as a victory for Hezbollah. Terrorist organizations define victory as “Some of us survived.” In reality, the Second Lebanon War accomplished nothing concrete for Hezbollah.

The original Israeli war plan was to land the amphibious Givati Brigade north of the Litani River (red arrow below).

As the Givati Brigade moved south, armored brigades would race northward from Israel, and helicopters and fixed-wing transports would deliver airborne brigades. Israel would isolate Hezbollah to destroy it once and for all.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert feared that this operation would cause enormous Israeli and Lebanese casualties. Olmert agreed to Defense Minister Amir Peretz’s plan to destroy Hezbollah from the air instead. This has been the dream of world leaders since 1911, when Italy became the first country to use aerial munitions. For over a century nations have tried to win wars with only air power. The result is always bad PR and an enemy who claims victory.

“All their technology meant nothing!”

How many time have you heard that?

The hubris of Hezbollah

A few months ago, I figured out how the Arab League would defeat Hezbollah in Syria. My theory seemed utterly insane, but I was correct.

Let’s be blunt: Most of the world holds Arabs in contempt. It’s a combination of bigotry and the very troubled modern history of Arab nations.

As a military historian, I knew that the bravest, most effective assault troops in World War I were Muslim Arabs.

The 1st Moroccan Infantry Division was the best unit of shock troops in the French army. American veterans of the war told incredible stories of Moroccans, Algerians, and Tunisians. I’ve read most of these accounts, so I knew that someday the Arabs would return to their roots.

That day has come.

Hezbollah and its allies view Syrian Arabs as buffoons. In reality, Bashar al-Assad was terrified of military coups, so he deliberately kept the training level of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) low. It’s not the fault of the SAA that it can’t fight well.

The Arab League used both the poor performance of the SAA and the arrogance of Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia to successfully carry out the greatest military deception (MILDEC) in history. It’s like fiction, but it’s real.

Hezbollah versus the SAA

Arab social media has begun talking about this.

At 02:30 am on June 16, 2016, the Lebanese website Janoubia, which is known for its opposition to Hizbullah, cited “Syrian sources” in a report stating that “real battles are taking place in Tel Al-Maysat and Al-Bureij in the Aleppo area between Assad’s army and Hizbullah troops,” and that “the Syrian air force bombed Hizbullah positions on three separate occasions.”

According to the sources, “this is not the first clash [between the sides] in the recent days,” and “the reason for the conflict is the Assad’s army rapid withdrawal from positions that Hizbullah had won in very costly battles.”

The oppositionist Syrian website “Shaam” reported under the heading “Yesterday’s Friend Is Today’s Enemy” that “intense fighting involving heavy weapons and artillery” had started during the night between Hizbullah and Assad forces along several routes in the rural area north of Aleppo, and that a major road in that area had been blocked.

The report added that Russian jets had bombed Hizbullah positions in the area.

Assad’s forces are said to have given the coordinates to the Russians; the air strikes killed and injured dozens of Hezbollah fighters.

I have a surprise for you: The men fighting Hezbollah are not the SAA.

While Hezbollah wasn’t looking…

In 2014, the late Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force second-in-command Brigadier General Hossein Hamedani said the following.

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad is “fighting this war [in Syria] as our deputy,” implying that the Iranian regime is the one who is in charge.

The editor of Letter from Syria added this.

The war in Syria is now essentially an Iranian regime war – not a proxy one but in the most direct sense of the word. The Syrian rebels are mainly fighting the Iranian regime, represented by Sepah Pasdaran [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] and Basij and their foot soldiers, Hezbollah Lebanon and the Iraqi militias.

Syria (or the areas under regime control) is effectively a country occupied by Sepah Pasdaran. Bashar al-Assad is a just puppet who is no longer in charge, and his regime is just a facade. His real masters are the head of Sepah Pasdaran’s operations in Syria Hossein Hamedani and the head of Sepah Qods Qassim Soleimani. Both are the de facto military rulers of Syria. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei has the final say in all important matters in Syria, just like in Iran.

In June of 2014, Quds Force commander Major General Qassem Suleimani promised to dismantle the SAA and replace it with the Syrian Revolutionary Guard Corps. According to Suleimani, the SAA could not be trusted to win. By 2012, the Iranians had created the Syrian National Defense Forces, modeled on the Iranian Basij; therefore the SAA ceased to exist in 2014.

That’s why hundreds of thousands of military-aged Syrian men became refugees all over the world. They’re former SAA.

Who took their place?

As a result of bigotry…

Nobody looked closely at videos of the “SAA.”

These are Israeli-Arab fuel-air munitions (FAEs).

And this “SAA” soldier is firing an American BGM-71 TOW antitank guided missile (ATGM).

Needless to say, neither the SAA nor Hezbollah use the American TOW.

The rebels have only the tandem-warhead BGM-71E.

It’s the missile on the right below.

This “SAA” soldier fired what looks like the BGM-71A. It’s over 46 years old.

My guess is that it’s actually the secret version with an FAE warhead.

When I saw a Mauritanian 1st Parachute Commando Battalion adviser with the “SAA,” I knew what the Arab League was doing.

The video below confirmed it. These are Arab League special forces, not SAA.

They’re too well equipped and trained to be Syrian.

Words can’t express the brilliance and audacity of this operation. Nobody’s ever attempted anything like it. Arab League strategic special forces gradually took the place of the entire Syrian Arab Army, right under the noses of the Iranians, Hezbollah, and Russia. And now the commandos are creating such confusion that the enemy is dropping bombs on himself.

It’s time for the world to stop underestimating Arabs.